Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.